The S&P 500 rose 2.8% in January; International stocks outperformed but have significantly underperformed over the past couple of years.(1) The 10yr Treasury finished January lower after spiking in the middle of the month as investors anticipated elevated growth and inflation from tariffs under the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a level of 4.25-4.50%. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.0% from last year, marking the 47th straight month above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target (figure 1).(2) The economy added 143k jobs, lower than the 160k expected, but December’s report was revised higher by 50k jobs. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.0% and has been in the 4.0%-4.3% range for nine straight months.(3) Job openings fell to 7.6m, but the ratio of jobs available to unemployed people remains healthily above 1.(4) All this points to a continually strong labor market.
Q4 earnings season is now underway, with expectations for 11.7% growth.(5) Much of the focus will once again be on the Magnificent 7 stocks(6) and their AI spending. President Trump has issued 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum beginning in March, additional 10% tariffs on China, reciprocal tariffs (matches other countries tariffs on our goods), and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico that are on hold until early March.(7) Should these tariffs last, Americans should expect an uptick in inflation. The 10yr Treasury has risen from 3.6% in September to ~4.6% today despite 1% worth of cuts to the federal funds rate during that time (see figure 2).(8) This is a good reminder that the very short-term federal funds rate being changed will not necessarily result in an equal change in longer-term rates, such as auto loans or mortgages. Mortgage rates have bounced between 6%-8% since the beginning of 2023, and now sit just below 7%.(9)
Analysts predict earnings growth of 15% for 2025.(5) The Federal Reserve and Wall Street predict 1-2 interest rate cuts this year, but that will all depend on inflation and the labor market.(10,11) February has historically been a rough month for the stock market.(12) There remains widespread uncertainty around President Trump’s policies on tariffs, lowering taxes, cracking down on immigration, and increasing oil production in the US.(13) These policies have the potential to negatively and positively affect the economy and the markets, but we and most of Wall Street remain cautiously optimistic overall on the Trump administration.
1. https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EDJITR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ENACTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ERUTTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EMSEAFETR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EBBUSATR – Index Performance
2. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733 - CPI
3. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227 - Jobs reports
4. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=12kNG - Job openings
5. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025A.pdf - Earnings expectations
6. The Magnificent 7 stocks are Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla
7. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ - Tariffs
8. https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/ - Treasury yields
9. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US - Mortgage Rates
10. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html – Investor rate expectations
11. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-cuts-rates-by-quarter-point-scales-back-cuts-for-2025-125715874.html - Fed Outlook
12. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-the-average-stock-market-return-in-every-month-of-the-year – Monthly market history
13. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/donald-trump-tax-plan-2024/ - Trump presidency likely outcomes
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